A Test for Arik

After working myself into a frenzy last night, imagining grey-suited FEC bureaucrats storming into my apartment screaming about campaign finance reform and confiscating my laptop, I had hoped for some more laid-back blogging tonight...something mellow, like comparing the moustaches of Tom Friedman and John Bolton. But no. Instead, the mojo-wire spits this out at me:

A damning official report will on Wednesday accuse the Israeli state of funding the creation of Jewish settler outposts in the West Bank even though the government itself regards them as illegal. Talia Sasson, a former state prosecutor commissioned by Ariel Sharon, prime minister, to investigate the outpost issue, found "blatant violations of the law" by officials and state institutions.

According to leaks of the document to the media, Ms Sasson concludes: "The process of outpost expansion is profoundly under way." ... Ms Sasson is expected to report that some of the outposts were established on private Palestinian land with the help of housing ministry architects. She will also report that defence ministry officials allocated such land for outpost construction to the quasi-official Jewish Agency and that the housing ministry funded many of the trailers.

However, the first stage of the international peace "road map", which Israeli has accepted, specifically calls for the removal of all unauthorised outposts established since Mr Sharon came to office four years ago. ... Government officials declined comment until Wednesday's official publication of the report, which was to be delivered to Mr Sharon on Tuesday night.

Already fragile, the ceasefire -- indeed the entire peace process -- now dangles on the edge of a precipice. Palestinian leader, Mahmoud Abbas, remains unwilling to provoke a Palestinian civil war by trying to forcibly disarm the militants. Likewise, Sharon is unwilling to provoke a parallel Israeli civil war by forcibly removing the West Bank settlers (to Sharon's credit, he is pursuing a limited version of this with the Gaza pullout, but the real test has always been in the West Bank).

The current uneasy and incomplete lull in the violence is predicated upon Abbas' ability to convince Palestinian militants to observe the ceasefire volutarily. But for this srategy to work he needs Sharon to make concessions. Palestinians must be able to see that the ceasefire is benefiting them, and not just Israel. To put it mildy, news that Israel's own government has been illegally expanding the West Bank settlements in direct violation of the "Road Map" which that very government has endorsed, will not help matters.

Much will depend on how Sharon responds to this news tomorrow. The fact that he commissioned the investigation in the first place is heartening. But for the peace process to survive, Sharon must make it clear that he condemns the expansion of the settlements and take tangible steps to curb that expansion.

Developing...